Published: 15/03/2010 at 12:00 AM
ผ่านทางThe water shortage: crisis of opportunity?.
The El Nino weather pattern is expected to create drought conditions in Thailand and throughout Asia this year, with higher temperatures and rains forecast to arrive around two months later than usual in some areas. The Agriculture Ministry predicts that 60 of Thailand’s 76 provinces will suffer hotter temperatures and lower rainfall, and since the country’s reservoirs were already below capacity at the end of last year’s rainy season, this will inevitably lead to water shortages. This threat is already hitting Thailand’s economy, with farmers being urged not to plant a second rice crop in order to reduce stress on water supplies.
Fortunately, the problems we are facing are expected to be temporary, due to the transient nature of El Nino. However, they are an indicator of an underlying trend, as water shortages throughout the region become chronic and more serious. According to a 2009 report, Charting Our Water Future, co-authored by the McKinsey Group, by 2050 there will be a global water shortage of 4,200 billion cubic metres, representing 40% of total demand.
Left unsolved, this would mean a global crisis of unprecedented proportions. The good news is that this problem can be solved through good management on both the demand and supply side along with co-operation between the public and private sectors.
Assuming that governments take the necessary steps to better manage water supplies, business impacts will include higher commodity prices, higher costs of water, stricter water-use compliance standards and water rationing. As local sources of agricultural supplies will dry up in some instances, some businesses (e.g. in the food processing industry) will have to close or relocate their operations.
Agriculture accounts for 70% of all water consumption worldwide and around 75% of water consumption in Thailand. Rice, a staple product of Thailand, is extremely water-dependent, as are other basic commodities such as milk, wheat and corn. In a drought cycle, many farmers may lose their crops.
Water shortages will also push up prices, which will encourage farmers to intensify their cropping, placing yet more pressure on water supplies. We are already seeing this in Thailand with the El Nino effect – despite warnings of insufficient water supplies, many farmers have ignored requests to limit rice crops as they seek to maximise the benefits of higher prices. The Thai government may therefore be forced to adopt measures such as increasing the price of water or applying strict rationing.
Given the importance of agriculture to Thailand, production efficiency needs to be a priority. In order to increase the “crop per drop”, Thailand needs to modernise irrigation systems, enhance crop yields, improve the efficiency of water application and drainage systems, develop more drought-resistant seed varieties and encourage crop stress management systems.
Another point to consider is the type of crops grown, as there is a big difference in water consumption for different kinds of crops. For example, approximately 200 litres of water are required to produce one glass of milk or one slice of bread. This compares with 2,800 litres of water to produce one kilogramme of chicken, 6,000 litres to produce one kilogramme of pork and a whopping 15,000 litres to produce one kilogramme of beef.
Industry is the second biggest user of water globally after agriculture and so this sector needs to introduce systems for conservation, recycle waste water and increase water-use efficiency by moderating their use of water. Those companies that adopt these practices early on will not only be in a more secure situation in the event of water scarcity in the future but they will benefit from the productivity gains that this entails.
A third major user of water in Thailand is the tourism industry. Already we have seen water shortages in drought years, especially at our popular beach islands. Hotels therefore need to adopt efficient water-management practices, recycling and monitoring water use to eliminate wasteful practices.
Thailand is in the fortunate position of having relatively good supplies of water compared with many other countries. According to a 2008 report by JP Morgan, Thailand had 6,526 cubic metres of water per capita in 2005 compared with 199 for Singapore, 1,891 for India and 2,206 for China. However, Thailand was slightly below the average for developing countries and well below Malaysia (26,105) and Indonesia (13,381).
Given that Thailand has relatively good supplies of ground water, the key to ensuring the sustainability of our industry and agriculture is capture and retention, such as in the dams and mini-dam projects supported by His Majesty the King. By increasing the supply of water we will significantly increase the productivity of our agricultural sector and be able to take advantage of rising commodity prices.
As always, in any period of major change some enterprises will be able to benefit from this “crisis” and turn it into opportunity. Winners may include private-sector operators involved in the building of water-supply facilities, private developers of waste-water management systems and private sector partners working on water distribution maintenance and conservation projects.
Efficient water-management distribution and supply is a major component of the Thai Khem Khaeng infrastructure investment project so we are certain to hear a lot more about this subject over the next few months. Those businesses that investigate this issue and understand the opportunities and threats they face will therefore be in a strong position to face the challenges of the future.
Piya Sosothikul, is an executive vice-president, Bangkok Bank. Meeting the Challenges appears every two weeks. Questions, comments or suggestions can be sent to asiafocus@bangkokpost.co.th